# CFR full-panel refresh review - November 5, 2026

Review includes the regular-session close and post-close issuer disclosures. Prices, source publication dates, fiscal periods and model assumptions use separate clocks.

## Recomputed model

Composite **34.84/100**; **MONITOR**, Stage 1 **2/3**, Stage 2 **0/3**. Five Warning/Crisis issuers, one in Crisis. Sixth/ninth conditional Warning crossings: **2027-03-11 / 2027-09-23**.

| Horizon | Reference vulnerability | Slow-fast sensitivity |
|---|---:|---:|
| 7 days | 35.30 | 35.09-35.56 |
| 14 days | 35.77 | 35.35-36.28 |
| 30 days | 36.84 | 35.94-37.96 |

November 6 mechanical no-new-evidence vulnerability: **34.91**, slow/fast **34.88-34.94**. No calibrated return forecast or event probabilities.

## All panels

| Panel | Review treatment |
|---|---|
| Action gates | Recomputed from current ledger and dated confirmations; all required gates still enforced. |
| Stress spread and direct-loss charts | Recomputed using expanded verified equity scope and issuer/financing disclosures. Dollar bases remain proxies. |
| Canary Ranking - Top 12 | Re-ranked across cohort companies; current close, latest source date and missing credit quotes shown. |
| Financing network | Updated scores; original contract amounts flagged unreconciled. Unquantified new support excluded from propagation. |
| Forecast checkpoints | Rolling path recomputed; original March comparison clearly archived. |
| Capital-market evidence | New Oracle, Meta, IREN, OpenAI, Microsoft and project-support records added. |
| IPO and market access | New funding target and Nscale optionality context; old IPO decisions retain their original dates. |
| Direct market-value accounting | Recomputed with dated proxy bases; not a measured November 5 market-cap loss. |
| Calibration and current evidence | Latest confirming and counterevidence; no empirical probability invented. |
| Counterparty inspector | Issuer review, closing price and graph-term status available per selected actor. |
| Policy and buildout | Project-level timing evidence updated while political causation remains unverified. |
| November 6 outlook | Updated after IREN disclosure; conditional scenarios and BLS catalyst, no return target. |

## All 23 company evidence records

Prices below are unadjusted regular-session closes in the stated currency. Japan and U.S. closes are not simultaneous. None is an after-hours quote. Old market-cap proxies remain unverified.

| Company | November 5 close | Change | Latest retrieved evidence date | Source |
|---|---:|---:|---|---|
| Microsoft | USD 535.93 | -3.58% | 2026-11-05 | [Issuer/news source](https://www.streetinsider.com/Reuters/Microsoft%2Btightens%2Boversight%2Bof%2Bneocloud%2Bdata%2Bcenter%2Bprojects%2C%2BBloomberg%2BNews%2Breports/27298087.html) |
| Amazon | USD 260.21 | -2.19% | 2026-10-29 | [Issuer/news source](https://ir.aboutamazon.com/news-release/news-release-details/2026/Amazon-com-Announces-Third-Quarter-Results/default.aspx) |
| Alphabet | USD 282.57 | -2.20% | 2026-10-29 | [Issuer/news source](https://abc.xyz/investor/events/event-details/2026/2026-Q3-Earnings-Call-2026-Ujou16CTw9/default.aspx) |
| Meta | USD 605.08 | -3.96% | 2026-11-03 | [Issuer/news source](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1326801/000119312526445646/d186765dfwp.htm) |
| Apple | USD 344.17 | -1.53% | 2026-11-02 | [Issuer/news source](https://www.apple.com/newsroom/2026/11/apple-reports-fourth-quarter-results/) |
| Tesla | USD 343.69 | -10.77% | 2026-10-21 | [Issuer/news source](https://ir.tesla.com/press-release/tesla-releases-third-quarter-2026-financial-results) |
| Nvidia | USD 181.60 | -9.26% | 2026-08-26 | [Issuer/news source](https://investor.nvidia.com/news/press-release-details/2026/NVIDIA-Announces-Financial-Results-for-Second-Quarter-Fiscal-2027/) |
| Broadcom | USD 291.53 | -10.43% | 2026-09-02 | [Issuer/news source](https://investors.broadcom.com/news-releases/news-release-details/broadcom-inc-announces-third-quarter-fiscal-year-2026-financial) |
| AMD | USD 404.40 | -17.26% | 2026-11-03 | [Issuer/news source](https://ir.amd.com/news-events/press-releases/detail/1303/amd-reports-third-quarter-2026-financial-results) |
| Intel | USD 52.25 | -10.33% | 2026-10-29 | [Issuer/news source](https://www.intc.com/filings-reports/all-sec-filings/content/0000050863-26-000188/0000050863-26-000188.pdf) |
| Qualcomm | USD 156.75 | -9.49% | 2026-11-04 | [Issuer/news source](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/804328/000080432826000127/qcom092726erex991.htm) |
| Marvell | USD 133.55 | -16.43% | 2026-08-27 | [Issuer/news source](https://investor.marvell.com/sec-filings/all-sec-filings/content/0001835632-26-000022/q227_8kx812026ex-991.htm) |
| CoreWeave | USD 43.66 | -9.83% | 2026-11-05 | [Issuer/news source](https://www.livemint.com/market/gathering-ai-storm-clouds-doom-tech-stocks-to-darkest-day-in-a-year-11793905499422.html) |
| Nebius | USD 120.37 | -14.94% | 2026-11-05 | [Issuer/news source](https://www.streetinsider.com/Reuters/Microsoft%2Btightens%2Boversight%2Bof%2Bneocloud%2Bdata%2Bcenter%2Bprojects%2C%2BBloomberg%2BNews%2Breports/27298087.html) |
| IREN | USD 18.03 | -16.95% | 2026-11-05 | [Issuer/news source](https://irisenergy.gcs-web.com/news-releases/news-release-details/iren-reports-q1-fy27-results) |
| Oracle | USD 115.16 | -6.93% | 2026-11-02 | [Issuer/news source](https://investor.oracle.com/investor-news/news-details/2026/Oracle-Announces-Pricing-of-20-Billion-of-Common-Stock-and-Senior-Notes/default.aspx) |
| HPE | USD 44.16 | -11.84% | 2026-09-02 | [Issuer/news source](https://www.hpe.com/us/en/newsroom/press-release/2026/09/hpe-reports-fiscal-2026-third-quarter-results.html) |
| Corning | USD 103.43 | -12.92% | 2026-10-27 | [Issuer/news source](https://investor.corning.com/news-and-events/news/news-details/2026/Corning-Delivers-Outstanding-Third-Quarter-Results1/default.aspx) |
| SpaceX | USD 123.62 | -9.05% | 2026-10-26 | [Issuer/news source](https://www.apollo.com/insights-news/pressreleases/2026/10/spacex-secures--40-billion-in-the-largest-gpu-financing-ever) |
| SoftBank | JPY 3980.00 | -6.77% | 2026-10-02 | [Issuer/news source](https://group.softbank/en/news/info/20261002) |
| OpenAI | No verified public close | N/A | 2026-10-30 | [Issuer/news source](https://www.investing.com/news/economy-news/openai-cuts-funding-target-by-10-billion-ft-reports-4988969) |
| Anthropic | No verified public close | N/A | 2026-11-04 | [Issuer/news source](https://investors.terawulf.com/sec-filings/all-sec-filings/content/0001628280-26-069810/exhibit101-googlexterawulf.htm) |
| Nscale | No verified public close | N/A | 2026-11-05 | [Issuer/news source](https://www.streetinsider.com/Reuters/Microsoft%2Btightens%2Boversight%2Bof%2Bneocloud%2Bdata%2Bcenter%2Bprojects%2C%2BBloomberg%2BNews%2Breports/27298087.html) |

Per-price provider URLs and dated bars are in `data/market_snapshot.json`; issuer notes and original dates are in `data/companies.json`.

## Canary Ranking - Top 12

| Rank | Company | Analyst vulnerability |
|---|---|---:|
| 1 | CoreWeave | 88 |
| 2 | Oracle | 64 |
| 3 | Nebius | 62 |
| 4 | IREN | 62 |
| 5 | Nscale | 57 |
| 6 | OpenAI | 46 |
| 7 | Anthropic | 35 |
| 8 | Intel | 35 |
| 9 | SoftBank | 34 |
| 10 | Marvell | 33 |
| 11 | HPE | 31 |
| 12 | AMD | 29 |

These are analyst scores, not credit ratings or bankruptcy probabilities. The default CoreWeave CDS sensitivity remains an October input because a fresh numeric quote was not verified.

## Remaining limitations

- No current numeric CDS quote verified; 1,100 bps remains an October sensitivity input.
- Current issuer market-cap endpoint required authentication. Old cap_bn and seven sector bases remain dated proxies; no current observed dollar-loss total is claimed.
- Original contract terms and funded balances are not fully reconciled; retained graph edges are explicitly flagged.
- IG/HY spread retrieval failed; no comprehensive funding-failure or invoice-delinquency census.
- Original March reverse-stress scenario stays archived; its future path is hypothetical, not a refreshed observation.

Validation includes all-cohort price arithmetic and exchange dates, private-price gaps, story supersession, gate freshness, unquantified contract exclusion, ranking cohort membership, model tests, browser startup and static builds. Publication status is checked separately against the pushed commit.