# Research sources / as-of 2026-10-25

The following are **public primary reports and dated secondary market articles** that were consulted to identify the base observations and scenario structure. Some individual relationships come from the prior workbook and are **not re-verified in this implementation**; consult `data/flows.json` for each row's original source and stage.

| Finding | Source | Dated |
|---|---|---|
| 14 circular transactions, around $300B equity, $650B debt, $1.4T future revenue commitments; wrong-way risk | [IMF GFSR Blog](https://www.imf.org/en/blogs/articles/2026/10/12/global-financial-markets-face-rising-risks-from-ai-bond-yields-and-cyberattacks) | Oct 13 2026 |
| Full systemic risk discussion | [IMF Global Financial Stability Report](https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/GFSR/Issues/2026/10/13/Global-Financial-Stability-Report-October-2026) | Oct 2026 |
| CoreWeave five-year CDS > 1,100bp; 2031 bond yield up to ~16% | [Reuters via Investing.com](https://www.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/ai-credit-default-swap-spreads-widen-sharply-4950549) | Oct 15 2026 |
| CoreWeave unsecured 2032 debt < 80 cents per dollar | [Bloomberg](https://bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-10-14/coreweave-bonds-tumble-into-distress-drawing-yikes-from-musk) | Oct 14 2026 |
| Anthropic planned IPO and OpenAI fundraise; valuations are proposed, not firm marks | [Reuters via Investing.com](https://www.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/exclusiveopenai-seeks-to-accelerate-fundraising-ahead-of-anthropic-ipo-sources-say-4958511) | Oct 19 2026 |
| SpaceX publicly traded SPCX since June 12, IPO closed June 15 | [SpaceX investor relations](https://ir.spacex.com/updates/releases-details/2026/Space-Exploration-Technologies-Corp--Announces-Closing-of-Initial-Public-Offering-Including-Full-Exercise-of-Underwriters-Option-to-Purchase-Additional-Shares-2026-RgoR-Y1Vwh/) | Jun 15 2026 |
| Oracle FY27 Q1 capex $28.499B, operating cash flow $23.103B, FCF -$5.396B | [Oracle earnings release](https://investor.oracle.com/investor-news/news-details/2026/Oracle-Announces-Q1-Results-Driven-by-Triple-Digit-Growth-in-Cloud-Infrastructure-Revenues/default.aspx) | Sep 10 2026 |
| Oracle company-wide remaining performance obligations $664B | [Oracle SEC earnings filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1341439/000119312526387905/orcl-ex99_1.htm) | Sep 10 2026 |
| Nvidia FY27 Q2 revenue $96.221B, +106% YoY | [Nvidia investor release](https://investor.nvidia.com/news/press-release-details/2026/NVIDIA-Announces-Financial-Results-for-Second-Quarter-Fiscal-2027/) | Aug 26 2026 |
| Mag 7 aggregate around $23.7T (dynamic; **not point-in-time archived** here) | [Slickcharts Mag 7](https://www.slickcharts.com/magnificent7/marketcap) | Accessed Oct 25 2026 |
| Approximate relative public company valuations in the network | Bloomberg graphic supplied by user, captioned Oct 20 2026 | Oct 20 2026 |

## October 20, 2026 — neocloud IPO and market-access evidence

- [Bloomberg: AI Neoclouds Lose Their Shine, Stalling IPOs and Sinking Stocks](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-10-20/ai-debutant-s-flameout-stokes-fears-the-boom-is-ending), Oct 20 2026. Reports Elice's 32% debut decline; shelved or postponed Firmus, AirTrunk and SB Energy offerings; Nscale valuation resistance; CoreWeave drawdown from peak. **These are market-access observations, not cash-flow edges or bankruptcy events.**
- [Reuters: South Korean firm's debut plunge adds to investor concerns about AI spending](https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/south-korean-ai-data-centre-firm-elice-shares-tumble-ipo-debut-2026-10-20/), Oct 20 2026. Confirms Elice raised KRW 201.1B (~$150M), closed at KRW 60,500 versus KRW 90,500 IPO price, post-IPO value ~$508M, and reported H1 revenue KRW 34B and operating profit KRW 10B. Confirms multiple postponed listings.
- The model aggregates the simultaneous IPO postponements into **one correlated sector-sentiment cluster**. Neither the market-loss total ($13.73T scenario output) nor the network's 46 financing edges changes: no new verified financing edge amount has been added. A separate optional subjective likelihood factor is exposed in the dashboard, *not* represented as a calibrated crash probability.

### Source control and caution

- `data/observations.json` is the explicit current-observation ledger. It includes date, source URL and explanatory caveat. Update there and rebuild. `data/canary_watchlist.csv` describes the next measurements required; the tool does **not** collect them live.
- `data/flows.json` is derived from the **previous spreadsheet**, which contains 46 records with different levels of documentation. Its `included` flag means the earlier prototype treated it as relevant for sensitivity analysis; **it is not independent proof of funding having been transferred**.
- Any $1.4T OpenAI financing valuation or $1.5T Anthropic IPO valuation is a **reported possible negotiation/IPO price**, not realized enterprise value. Some sizes are even looser research proxies, plainly marked in `data/companies.json`.
- Many claims in the user-supplied March-crash quote ("200 neoclouds", "500 adjacent companies", "$7T build-out", four times dot-com losses, daily bankruptcies) are **unverified scenario assertions** here. The simulation does not treat them as observed facts.
- Market values are enterprise/equity proxies sampled on different dates. Avoid treating the sum as an audited total. Share-count changes, index overlap, cross-ownership, international securities and future private mark-to-market would matter for an actual $20T calculation.