Reverse-engineer the warning sequence necessary for a March 2027 AI crash, then stress-test circular financing and evaluate potential transmission hubs. Measured observations are kept separate from analyst assumptions and hypothetical future events.
Trace the chain funding stress → failed project finance → weaker compute demand → chip orders → broad market losses. The clock shows the required crash trajectory, not a prediction that these events will occur.
Click a month, or press Play above, to follow the required sequence. October is the only observed period; November–March are conditional tests.
Thresholds flag questions to investigate; they are not calibrated probabilities.
Bloomberg and Reuters reports. An IPO delay is not a debt default; a falling share price is not a cash outflow. All signals belong to one correlated market-access cluster.
Elice also raised ~$150M and reported operating profitability, despite its first-day share decline. These events are not additional financing arrows or realized market losses in the $20T accounting.
Remaining gap:
Proxies (especially non-Mag7 semis, other infrastructure, private labs, and neocloud aggregate) are editable analyst assumptions, not authoritative full-sector market capitalization. These disjoint buckets are illustrative and exclude indirect investment write-down double counting.
We cannot responsibly assign a numerical crash probability from these observations. The timeline tests a conditional path; it does not estimate how frequently markets follow it.
Needs dated returns and option-implied downside distributions across a defined AI stock universe.
Needs cross-issuer credit spreads, project defaults, liquidity and debt maturity evidence; not just one issuer.
Needs issuer-level valuations without overlap, correlated shock modeling, contagion calibration and timing validation.
CoreWeave distressed financing indicators; multiple AI-infrastructure IPO deferrals and Elice's weak debut.
Nvidia's strong realized revenue; Elice raised capital and reported a profitable first half.
Independent refinancing failures, cancelled projects, chip order cuts, and the additional ~$6.27T loss not accounted for by the sector assumptions.
These signals are qualitative and partly correlated; no automatic likelihood update or hidden numerical prior is used. The separate CoreWeave CDS calculator estimates an issuer-specific, risk-neutral credit proxy—not the crash probability.
Click a source link to inspect disclosed status. A commitment is not revenue, cash, debt or a current loss.